Tag Archives: Aggregative Contingent Estimation


Designed intelligence: how experts can help the crowd

Posted on by Ville Miettinen

… wisdom.”

The CIA’s project uses a modified version of the wisdom of crowds effect called Aggregative Contingent Estimation. While this may sound like a classic CIA euphemism the process is actually a carefully designed way to create a crowd of experts and pool a broad range of analysis and opinion.

It’s too early to tell if the CIA’s crowd of experts will be successful in predicting the next major global event. (For the record, I predict that 2013 will be the year of …

Tags: Aggregative Contingent Estimation Central Intelligence Agency CIA crowdsourcing Gary Gygax intelligence Mark Lowenthal microtask microwork State Department Wisdom of Crowds

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