Tag Archives: Aggregative Contingent Estimation
September 12, 2012
The CIA’s project uses a modified version of the wisdom of crowds effect called Aggregative Contingent Estimation. While this may sound like a classic CIA euphemism the process is actually a carefully designed way to create a crowd of experts and pool a broad range of analysis and opinion.
It’s too early to tell if the CIA’s crowd of experts will be successful in predicting the next major global event. (For the record, I predict that 2013 will be the year of …
Tags: Aggregative Contingent Estimation Central Intelligence Agency CIA crowdsourcing Gary Gygax intelligence Mark Lowenthal microtask microwork State Department Wisdom of CrowdsAggregative Contingent Estimation, Central Intelligence Agency, CIA, crowdsourcing, Gary Gygax, intelligence, Mark Lowenthal, microtask, microwork, State Department, Wisdom of Crowds | Leave a comment