Tag Archives: Prediction

Predicting the Facebook IPO: The crowd gets it wrong

Posted on by Ville Miettinen

… Facebook IPO has evaporated.

So how did it all go so wrong? One clue may lie in the crowdsourced prediction site FacebookIPODayClosingPrice.com. The site was created in response to a suggestion by venture capitalist Chris Sacca that someone should create a forum where pundits could register their predictions before the big day. Although share markets are notoriously irrational, in a way it makes a lot of sense. Who better to predict something based on the whims of a crowd than a crowd? …

Tags: Chris Sacca crowdsourcing Facebook Facebook IPO FacebookIPODayClosingPrice.com Initial public offering Mark Zuckerberg microtask microwork Prediction Twitter

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Twitter Predictions: the future is just 140 characters away

Posted on by Ville Miettinen

… prices rose; after an anxious day, they fell. Dr Bollan is reported to have licensed his Twitter-prediction method to a London hedge fund (and so will presumably be retiring to a Caribbean island very soon).

Meaning overload

So far, Twitter experimenters have relied on relatively simple language-processing software to extract data from tweets. To get deeper insights, you need to do deeper analysis. The trouble is that human language is notoriously difficult for machines to interpret. …

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Can we crowdsource the planet better?

Posted on by Ville Miettinen

On the surface, crowdsourcing and the environmental movement seem like a perfect match. By mobilizing the masses and directing their collective skills towards a problem, crowdsourcing should be a powerful weapon in the fight against threats such as global warming (or, for those who live in recently freezing Helsinki , the challenge to speed global warming up). So why does it …


Getting paid to party: what is the difference between work and play?

Posted on by Vili Lehdonvirta

… future, it will no longer be possible to distinguish work from play. Rather than repeat the same prediction, I would like to use this essay to put forward an even more radical idea: it never was possible to distinguish work from play in the first place.

The meaning of work

The common sense way to distinguish between the two concepts is that work is productive, whereas play or consumption is unproductive, even destructive, as it consumes value created through work. This view was …